Economic Forecasting

PLEASE I NEED THIS ASSIGNMENT DONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. It needs to be turned in by 11pm Central time.

MY COMPANY IS CISCO

Remember that any work submitted should not be a Minitab or Excel graph list. I am interested in what you say and what you show to demonstrate your point. The plots are demonstrations and mean nothing unless they are accompanied by statements of; 1) Why you are showing it and 2) What it indicates. Business reports are not just a compilation of graphs, tables and statistics. They only support a message. As a result, expect that I will ignore any plots, table or statistics that do not have narrative accompanying them.

Assignment 3 Project Part 1 — The Proposal. Remember, this is a description of your proposed evaluation of four forecasting techniques to derive the best forecast for your company sales (Y) variable. The purpose of the study is to develop the best forecast for Y. The four techniques are exponential smoothing, decomposition, ARIMA and multiple regression. Multiple regression unlike the other three methods requires you to use other variables (independent X variables) to forecast sales. Follow the outline in Doc Sharing and be sure to include all of the components requested. You must make a statement as to why you chose each X variable and your hypothesis statements regarding the causal relationship between each X variable and Y (Sales). Include the basic statistics for Y and each X variable. Make sure that you tell me what they indicate. Include data time series plots and YX scatter plots (Minitab/Graphs/Time Series Plot and Minitab/Graphs/Scatter Plots/With Regression). Remember, always comment on the plots and statistics that you generate. You will need to comment on the characteristics of each data series in terms of trend, cycle and seasonality and the linearity of each X data relationship to Y. This proposal must include
a hypothesis test for each of your project independent variables that you have chosen foryour project. That is, run a correlation matrix in Minitab by entering your selected Y variable first followed by each of your selected X variables (Minitab/Stat/Basic Statistics/Correlation). Note the P values of YX and XX combinations and provide your assessment of each X variable’s correlation statistical significance. Show your work in a Word document with Excel or Minitab copy and paste components when you think they illustrate a point. Do not forget to include your Y and X data and citations for each variable in the project proposal following the data for each X variable in a table at the end of the proposal.

Remember that I am not asking you to forecast anything for your project at this point.

Chapter 1: Chapter 1 – X Variable Data Sources

The websites below are the approved sources for your project independent variable (X) data. They include:

General Economic and Business data–

www.economagic.com

www.nber.org

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

http://www.economy.com/freelunch

Employment Statistics–

www.stats.bls.gov

Population Characteristics data–

http://www.census.gov/popest/estbygeo.html

http://www.census.gov/econ/index.html

Regional Economic Data from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank

—
http://dallasfed.org/data/resources.html

Texas Employment and Unemployment data
http://www.tracer2.com/

Make sure to carefully read the project proposal requirements and the project outline in the Doc Sharing area under the tab at the top of this screen. Look at the data available in these sites and decide which data series you wish to select for the X variables and forecast. Keep in mind that you must find at least three other related quarterly data series of the same length (and dates) to help you forecast your primary sales data series. This means that you will need four data series with the same periods (quarters) for your project.

Project Proposal

Due by Midnight 9/16/2013

You have been hired by a major corporation to forecast their quarterly sales for two years. As a result, you need to show progress in the initial forecasting steps. Your proposal should begin with a hypothesis statement about the variables that you selected to use in the forecast of company sales.

1. Your proposal should begin with a hypothesis statement about the variables that you selected to use in the forecast of company sales. Include a brief statement of why you chose each variable to forecast sales.

2. Obtain quarterly sales/revenue data for the company you are assigned and load it into Minitab and save it as your Eco 309 Project. See the email that I sent you earlier with the quarterly data. You can refer to the project outline for further details. You may also download and save the data as an EXCEL file. The first column should be the dates and second column should be your data. Always label your columns appropriately.

3. Go to one of the approved data sources. This time you will need to obtain minimum 3 related variables. These variables should be values determined outside of the firm. (Not company accounting data) We will call these related variables the X variables. These variables will be quarterly consistent with your Y variable (If your Y variable is quarterly, your X variables will also be quarterly). All variables should be from the same time period. You can refer to the project outline for further details.

4. As an option for one of the three X variables you may Ggo to the company web site, annual reports or 10-K SEC filings and obtain any relevant internal data that you wish to include as another X variable. This could be R&D Expenses, Marketing Expenses, Total Expenses Product Units, Employees, etc. that you believe are important to the output of the company. Make sure that this variable is quarterly as well and covers the same time as the Y variable.

5. As another option for one of the three X variables you may go to the company data in Doc Sharing and see if you can find either competitor companies or companies that produce goods that are complimentary to your assigned company. You may also look for competitors sales data from 10-Ks and annual reports. Remember that this must also cover the entire time period you have for the assigned Y data. You may use the revenue/sales figures for these companies as another X variable.

6. Download and save all your X variables in your Minitab project worksheet labeled appropriately and save Minitab project. You may also save them as an EXCEL file. Recall that the first column is dates and second column is your Y variable. Your third column will be X1, 4th will be X2 and so forth. Label your X variables properly so I can understand what those variables are.

7. At this point you should have a copy of dates (C1), Y variable (C2) and X variables (C3 – C5) in a MINITAB project worksheet. Make sure that the variable columns are labeled correctly so I can understand which variables you are analyzing.

8. Run individual “Time Series Plots” and “ACF” on all your variables. Note the Trend, Cycle and Seasonality characteristics that are indicated by these plots. Note which X variable trend, cycle and seasonality characteristics are similar to the Y variable characteristics.

9. Produce descriptive statistics for all your variables. Comment on the mean, range and standard deviation and what they indicate relative to each variable.

10. Run Scatter plots of Y against each X separately. Note the linearity of the relationship. Classify it as positive or negative, weak, moderate or strong.

11. Develop and show the correlation matrix (you can find it under Stat>Basic Statistics>Correlation) of Y and all Xs. Enter the Y values first followed by each X that you have in order of the data columns. You need to tell me which Xs are more related to Y and which Xs are not. You need to prove that the relationships are statistically significant.

12. Your proposal should be a word document and include the pasted relevant Minitab output as well as the, the data used in a table at the end of the word document. The table should be followed by a brief description and source of each variable. You should put the webpage or document page that each variable came from.

Do not submit Minitab files. Submit the word proposal document in the proposal dropbox.

Revenue

Penny

Revenue Date

Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date

Date Sales Date Revenue Date

Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Sales Date Revenue Date Sales Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Sales Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Revenue Date Sales Date Revenue

3/31/95

3/31/89

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3/29/02

3/31/98

3/31/95

6/30/95

6/30/89

6/30/95

2.771

6/30/95

3/31/05

5000

6/30/95

6/28/02

6/30/98

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9/29/95

.8032

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.718

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3/31/10

897

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9/28/12 1269 9/28/12 13457 9/28/12 4309 3/30/07

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6/28/13 11578

																																																																																																																																																																																																																																																								J.C.	GAP	Sears	Best Buy	Costco	WalMart	Target	DirectTV	DISH	Disney	Netflix	Geico	Aetna	Aflac	UnitedHealth Group	Apple	Microsoft	DELL	Auto Zone	OReilly Auto Parts	WD-40	AT&T	Verizon	Ford Motor	GM	Chrysler	Toyota	Hershey	Hibbett Sports	Dicks Sporitng Goods	Sports Authority	Home Depot	Lowes	AMD	Intel	Jet Blue	U.S. Airways	American Airlines	Southwest Airlines	United Airlines	UPS	FedEx
																																									Date											Sales	Revenue		Revenue
																													3/31/95	4367	848.688	7443	1947.111	4307.	3218			3/31/89	5373.2598	2826	3566.8	40.413	3/31/80	218.1																																				3/29/02	30.527	951.3																												12/29/00	6598.4	1713.676	1103.835	2652	1587	1135.933	364.061	42.766					3/30/90	22.543	5164	3449.7	34783																		9/30/09	2	6784																														3/31/10	9700												6/29/01	3347740	867.	446														9/30/96	20.618												12/31/04	364207000		3/31/98	155.217	3568.962	1634.69	627.381	3557	133.369								3/31/05	1	628	3960	611.713	1408.343	3/29/96	5335	9/29/89	1647.	453
																													6/30/95	4435	868.514	8440	1274.696	3896.238			6/30/89	6046.4131	3097	3708.5	39.252	6/30/80	245.4																																				6/28/02	36.36	936.7																												3/30/01	6428.7		193	1157.945	2575	1621		1205.593	425.483	50.644					6/29/90	21.213	5256	3564.5	36389																		12/31/09	32327																														6/30/10	10478												9/28/01	3	4858	722.269													12/31/96	26.764	4	1613							6/30/98	169.057	4151.722	1978.058	638.867	3894	149.303								6/30/05	1945	4193	726.395	1478	6/28/96	5508			12/29/89	1724.149
																												9/29/95	5128		1155	929	7975	1437.911		6013	6283.4971	3236	3468.3	43.606	9/29/80	265.5																																					9/30/02	40.731	9/30/95	1040.4	6536.4	1	811	1215.536	3003	2016	1415.699	628.824	57.181				9/28/90	28.131	5567	3261	31418	31476																															9/30/10	11018																			12/31/01	3697	981.101																							3/31/97	26.165	54	10090												9/30/98	142.583	3997.79	1	765	606.953	4171	165.261												9/30/05	4272	751.435	1515	5585	1729.257
																											12/29/95	6632	1522.122	7855	1929.277		4383	8107.4858	4485	3613.	6001	40.619	12/29/80	203.5																																					12/31/02	45.188	12/31/95	1440.8	6185.9	1732.455	2193.562	3148	2195	1538.775	463.029	50.901				12/31/90	18.834	5725	3154.2	34547		3317																															12/31/10	10763	4574840	1119.851																6/30/97	26.393	788048000																								12/31/98	191.19	3751	1696.702	595.178	4580	187.	258																	12/30/05	2576	3884	771.398	1423.657	5	940	1914.21
	4644	1113.154			6975	2575.564	4688.6948	6768.1948	3007	960.4	37.498	3/29/81	235.1																																					3/31/03	55.669	3/31/96	1800	6042.5	1729.92	2318.11	2185	2205	1638	425.838	55.321					3/29/91	24.417	5574	7044		3626	34060																																				3/31/11	13124	4021134	931.514																								9/30/97	27.797	570843000																	3/31/99	151.933	4362.215	1906.498	544.212	217.13																							3/31/06	2648	3709	760.08	1489	5664	1916.517
4708	1120.335	7566	1637.184		4311		7543	3242	1000.5	70.651	6/28/81																																					6/30/03	63.187	6/30/96	1922	5264.7	1741.657		2492	2179	2255		1690	524.175	68.782					6/28/91	21.646		5738	7329.4	3	793	36882																																				6/30/11	13661		3865	796.343																							12/31/97	33.208	621972000															6/30/99	172.562	5292.917	2459.008	455.077	4621	244.701																							6/30/06	3191	4177	896.	333	1639	5846	1993
5745	1382.996	7212	1778.64	6182.709	7930.9512	3625		1151	39.037	9/30/81	308.437																																				9/30/03	72.202	1919.2	5064.2	1775.579	2587.358	2321	2295		2019	829.591	70.432					9/30/91	24.936	5957	7376.6	33960	36194																																				9/30/11	13067	4186777	1072.336	33.321	5826	6500																									9/30/99	155.495	4921.831	2193.239	456.862	5142	273.576																					9/29/06	2968	4317	875.396	1671	4810	1864.486
8374	1667.896	9684	2007.324	4883.	4082	10358.9385	4865	4117.5	51.715	12/31/81	211.78																																					12/31/03	81.185	2375	4832.1	1792.783	2676	2129	2680	2412	569.145	64.708					12/31/91	21.927	6217	7405.2	38	833	39373																																			12/30/11	15129		3980	1189.115	32.524	849507000																									12/31/99	201.005	4958.54	2041.496	496.868	6440	262.944																					12/29/06	2786		4135	817.434	1561	6138	1914.201
6705	1231.186	7263	2347.5349	5238.8931	9280.	5703	3349	1291	69.524	3/31/82	247.675																																						3/31/04	100.37		2042	4717.7	1707.543	2851.111	1601	3208		2588	538.012	68.472					3/31/92	27.955	5973		7416	36202	36719																																			3/30/12	16359	4092939	1002.469	35.988	645	4980																								3/31/00	165.749	5657.274	2400.754	551.999	6448	289.003																					3/30/07	2732		4202	870.46	1698	5	859		1825
6649	1345.221	7846	1606.551	4836.229	10339.9717	3562	1369	98.691	6/30/82	275.751																																						6/30/04	120.321	2302.7		4466	1741.464	2930.5	1737	3175	2814	637.895	82.448					6/30/92	21.566	5921		7707	40265	37990																																			6/29/12	16795	4	3860	905.729	41.517	734047000																									6/30/00	187.6		6550	2808.086	594.561		5960	319.718																					6/29/07		3155	4610	934.064	1786	6107	1943.406
7440	1765.939	7315	1793.204	6915.874	10627.5	3955	1513.3	130.038	9/30/82	295.044																																						9/30/04	141.644	2190.2	1789.62	2958.9	1614	3334	3188	946.388	87.517					9/30/92	28.516	6329	7373.9	36096	37759																																		9/28/12	15478	4	6844	1151.61	42.804	708343000																									9/29/00	166.128	6217.045	2530	596.644		6155	323.215																					9/28/07	3036	4833	975.153	1890	6158	1889.536
9752	2165.479	9759	2106.3611	5	429	13638.8604	5249	1451.8	179.165	12/31/82	270.142	138.276	2788.7	4469.1	1744.8519	3054	1578	3792	3737	675.274	77.962					12/31/92	24.621	8458	7695.7	4410	3	7614																																								12/31/12		1715	4510316	1242.428	39.342	1026275000	231.647	5731.46	2397.569	613.171	6507																																		12/31/07	2776	4472	954.274	1839		6664	1891.333
7052	1719.712	7515	2852.0959		5795	1	1649	3719	2280.6001	214.439	3/31/83	315.676	152.446		2602	4574.8	1757.026	4115	1405	3984	3920	607.097	118.269					3/31/93	29.373	11038	7651.1	36584	37576																																							3/29/13	15385	4	5153	1098.076	42.223	823553000	162.642		7123	3149.779	540.856	374.222																																		3/31/08	2840	4378	942.653	1	854		633	1864.936
6761	1904.97	8116	19	38.3	5338.0859	13028.4502	3967	2493.2	245.838	6/30/83	358.501	164.027	2585			4821	1703.501	4235	1402	4152	4331	743.661	165.242					6/30/93	29.306	11398			7927	37289	39307																												6/28/13	17994	4644062	880.399	49.943	10	13421	237.938	8139	3733.642	526.538	5927																																		6/30/08	3257	5148	1078.841	2036	6560	1964.674
7549	2399.948	7642	2177.7661	7707.022	13683.8203	4340	2642.8	235.407	9/30/83	363.0381	172.74	2756	4875	1699.542	4360	1556		4818	1216.89	172.784					9/30/93	25.664	11606	7909.9	32640	36884	4881799	1217.237	50.522	838831000	219.142	7699		3278	685.927	6731																																							9/30/08	4454	1094.83	2116	6715	1939.781
9316	3029.832	10401	2492.467	5998.0781	17122.0703	5901		2861	286.982	12/30/83	302.159	3474	5039.5	1943.927	4645	1710	5195	5173	900.949	160.007					12/31/93	28.882		12165		807	37903	39075		4981	1239.903	46.626	1212615000	315.995	7258	2915.664	788.82																																							12/31/08	2761	3504	1047.656	1921	7446		2038
7532		2277	8078	3456.03	6592.3579	13920.4072	4040	3362.1	309.576	3/30/84	407.301	224.126	5043	5168.3	2048	4809	1530	4595	5537	852.538	166.404					3/31/94	27.555	11819	7967		3754	497	1375	945.152	52.075	912112000	244.976		8952	3771.919	631.593	7103	490																																							3/31/09	2455	3835	1075.571	2056	7220	2015.725
7310	2453.339	8780	2385.	4309		6053	16236.5771	4287	3147.9	350.217	6/29/84	483.319	239.351		5065	5426.9	2032		1558	5764	6142	970.236	196.107					6/30/94	29.459	12268	8295	41907	5333387	853.239	60.403	1086294000	261.705	10431	4435.219	595.109	6746	612																																							6/30/09	2658	4139	1220.432		2198	7284	2121.5249
7834	3045.386	7962	2686.6399	8811.775	16826.998	4625	3187.9	428.18	9/28/84	463.1981	255.95	6626	5496.9	2196	4903	1336	5384	1392.669	208.401					9/30/94	26.27	12545	8304	4	3922	5750362	1066.695	60.345	924191000	227.762	9877	3909.188	662.192	7328	2719	4157	1235.166	2283	7367	2077.4141
9067	3858.941	11104	3107.3369	6943.	5122	21001.5605	6281		3233	516.103	12/31/84	426.53	277.233	5929	5700.7		2365	4992	2343	6112	6802	1006.472	183.21					12/30/94	29.769		12906	33628	42904	5638112	1105.838	55.633	1207531000	316.801	9174	3789.269	968.71	8212	2626		3861	1204.418	2152	7900	2264.792
7528	2731.99	8195	4314.6152	7736.9868	17686.1348	4465	3595.5	565.721	3/29/85	451.469	305.32	5867.4	2398	5099		5656	7280	924.164	195.758	29.389	1	2553	14532	44499	5	8337	993.115	57.737	959662000	228.432	11112	4467.114	1092.0291	7993	608	2651		4108	1242.647	7435	2231.127
7207		2947	8998	2963.718	6894.6079	19942.3145	4802	3385.6	646.129	6/28/85	546.909	303.693	5825	6234.7	2358	5220	5804	7670	1059.415	226.359	29.916		13191	16769	40055	6146584	836.204	67.415	11267	6700	267.514	12618	5264.252	1170.437	8300	730	3171	4316	1460.675	2571	7491	2358.7649
7538	3414.668	8199	3169.1709	10589.189	20417.7168	5046		3520	697.972	9/30/85	590.521	293.972	9/30/00	7486	6252	2472	5369	1870	5766	8264	1492.645	251.413	27.702	13422		1653		4260	63	2961	1196.755	70.79	989	816	552.534	1	1545	4504.141	1206.549	8731		3179	4596	1478.834	2622		739	2332.594
8950	4579.088	11636	3732.0801	7637.2778	24447.834	6998	3666.8	805.398	12/31/85	436.5	302.355	12/31/00		10940	6299.5	2475	5434	1007	8674	1063.566	216.891	27.612	12239	16873	4	2446	6522637		1194	902	65.919	1336590000	711.97	10463		4543	1175.172	8702	2907	1467.404	2429	8089	2469.5869
7522	3179.656	5462.0308	8306.3086	20440	4757	4183.1	861.93	3/31/86	522.6	326.183	3/31/01	7853	6359.5	2401	5680	1431	6403	8028	973.999	239.063	35.08	11190	16266	42314	6489572	988.002	67.004	10	4753	572.041	12200	5276.365	1188.7469	6677	4503	1428.617	2451	7579	2453.394
7211		3245		8917	3312	7718.895	22723	5236	3907.5	966.272	6/30/86	578.8	337.614	6/30/01	9996	2348	5813		1475	6577	7611	1139.957	280.676	34.228		11477	16909	36324	6709983	817.326	75.474	1	22606	605.025	14576		6126	985.264	6334	3503		1553	2556	7682	2547.012
7729	3333.373	8019	3768	11134.5498	22913	5573	1022.506	9/30/86	627.9001	341.269	9/30/01	9228	6793.9	5941	1450	7468	1640.663	293.996	33.992	11338	17004	40711	656	7048	1178.909	79.593	1078	9840	545.041	13289	5454.534	765.87	6545	3436		1335	2223	7754	2535.47
17271	4089.625	10878		4336	8466.	5527	27551	7950	4327	1150.43	12/31/86	660.9	359.595	9181	6961.3	2404	6020	7741	8061	1176.052	278.377	28.265	11903	17011	39461	6215130	1152.98	71.731	1518914000	713.756	13488	5253.485	951.873	6983	4531	1237.647	1738	8257	2737.7429
7728	2890.84	7181	6980	9382.8516	22772	5380	4876	1104.468	3/31/87	706	394.098	3/31/02	9359	7144.4	2371	1495	7245	8066	1081.311	295.489	39.806	10522	16430		4220	5975275	988.506	78.418	1113849000	591.232	1	4282	6471	902.073	6781	3266	4737	1257.243	8015	2692.312
7198	3268.309	7183	8616.	7471	25587	5751	4591	1168.684	6/30/87	751.3	408.509	6/30/02	10030	7738.7	2513	6078	1429	7253	8459	1224.81	343.181	34.525	10843	16752	39338	4802843	823.462	91.222	1306695000	617.034	16277	7488	600.299		6319	5296	1473	2192		8226	2852.3689
7872	3644.956	6459	4624	12296.347	25644	6073	4807	1222.849	9/30/87	758.6	423.12	10380	7828.1	2707	6247	1443		7746	9144	1843.337	359.579	35.297		10556	17113	41250	3536322	1152.321	96.519	1		1797	559.977	14475	6415	508.227	6504	3533	5471	1391.191	2178	8312	3534.0449
5743	4650.604	8529	5131	9198.585	30856	8167	1324.824	12/31/87	734.6	444.542	12137	7624.6		2666	6682	1472	8541	9735	1218.635	314.241	33.597	11217	17009	40815	3836077	1156.028	81.795	1611556000	741.087	13213	6037	686.43	7160	1400.539	8932		3961	1909
7493	3353	6181	6989	10114.1699	25409	5889	5314	1359.048	3/31/88	774.5	493.665	10553	7759.3	2807	7835	9532	1120.696	339.475	39.174	10333	16490	40582	45	4156	953.162	92.14	1281704000	15104	7118	714.555	6751	871	3380	5327	1351	8919	3866.491
7313		3685	5652	4669	9543.0713	28386	6293	4901	1414.567	6/30/88	915.7	519.819		1439	8614.7	7087	8065	9778	1288.445	393.112	31.831	10204	16829	36742	5292890	849.115	107.081	1	4370	17989		8666	645.261	6816	5959	2216	8871	3942.0181
7985		3929	5092	5398	13689.7305	28777	6622	5218	1452.295	9/30/88	1013.4	553.219	17598	8670.8	2931	7238	8215	10622	1829.347	412.182	39.795	10239	17063	46199	5280440	1191.019	114.823		1312072000		16598	7802	953.759	7833	1030		5830		3986
6098	4887	6328		6034		10521	35386	8953	5465	1513.386	12/30/88	1043.6	595.922	19855	8722.4	2853	7523	2006	10153	11512	1282.04	367.047	29.617	10067	17278	44723	4871825	1179.255	94.024	15125	7252	8741	5374	1517	2247	4077.9971
4033	3668	4615	8449	11548.9697	29819		6402	5981	1579.796	1037.8	718.553	17184	8756.2	3280	8144	9175	11540	1159.236	403.294	41.709		1012	17056	42802	4806667	1013.09	110.594	17550	8681	1236.4301	8091	5402	1484	2307	9886	4082.302
3857	3721	4797	5479	10897.2402	3	3521	6987	5608	1777.71	1167.6	788.61	17996	8621.5	8704	2014	9292	11706	1360.022	435.167	33.469	10196	17758	39121	4673113	893.688	120.828	1	9960	10169	1261.84	8049	5853	1716	10191	4209.2368
4461	4426	6080	15139.302	33509	7218	5848	1862.61	1345.3	821.839	19172		8545	3321	9859	2350	9189	12502	1835.727	455.162	41.553	10292	18206	44930	4642083	1254.51	126.914	18772	9064	1239.459	8471	1195	5922	1674	10550	4098.418
5955	4898	5909	6647		11578	40785		10055	6025	1931.1	1288.2	875.575	20030	8538.8	3448	10511	3490	10818		13457	1286.203	427.618	32.182	10287	18263	44895		3441	1267.963	104.363	16812	8550.001	1263.705	9598	1146	1656	2437	11954	4383.5132
4118	7626	9227	12658.077		3471	7158	6621	2024	1303.7	869.791	17634	8539.9		3559	11164	3243	9620	13300	1204.055	466.239	10248	18179	44548	4574872	1126.414	129.658	18973	9913	1226.628	9434	1203	5673	1663	2505	11521	4319.9771
3981	3716	1	3192	6118	11996.9	38470	7687	2095.486	1539.5	889.163	18128	8387.8		3567	11379	10161	13382	1338.387	521.209	39.614	10317	18053	40510	4	8652	988.447	151.159	22305	11929	1259.918	9231	1277	1944	2857	11736	4570.104
4479	12202	6702	16709.936	40432	6600	2128.221	1712.3	905.089	20533	8344.4	3669		1161	3678	9741	13880	1882.237	542.906	29.142	10304	18486	46549	5702526	1368.24	133.842	20744	10592	1522.755	1308	1989	3001	11662	4518.0571
6203	16086	7335	12933.346	51394	10930	2199.468	1492.4	945.239	12/31/05	25368	8475.3	5749	11837	15226	1338.076	514.964	41.27	12909	17927	40801	5501573	1346.117	114.404	19489	10808	1838.276	10201	5466	1987	2845	12628	4848.8071
11998	10693	14054.576	42985	7463	2299.391	1023.961		2276	8572.3		1758	4359	10900	14320	1253.815	536.547	40.318	15756	21231	41878	5406781	1139.507	129.628	21461	11921	1332.158	8940	1299	4834	11906	4778.7358
4238	3714	12785	6959	13273.175	46112	8251	7046	2466.155	1511.6	1069.372	24185	17863	11804	14211	1417.433	591.199	61.491	15770	21886	37095	5318752	1051.912	142.847	22592	13389	1216.367		8009	4885	2449	3507	12189	4894.9209
4781	3851	11941	7603	19875.221	45676	8582	7224	2475.291	1739.4	9/30/06	25360	8835.1	3672	4837	10811	14419	1939.031	597.144	48.452	15638	22459	40275	5837086	1416.202	145.825	19648	11211	1327.622	8739	2342	3518	12205	4838.7798
4917	16292	8473	14151.624	56556	12324	2598.725	1936.6	12/31/06	26231	8916.5	3687	18157	12542	14470	1393.069	558.332	50.94	15891	43005	6255319	1336.61	130.289	17404	10406	1773	9694	5057	3157	13392	5116.603
4350	3549	11747	12899	15112.016	48052	8334	8054	2644.985	1655.1	3/31/07	32918		9928	19047	5286	14398	14722	1300.357	613.145	51.494	28969	22584	44242	1153.109	140.148	18545	12172	1233	8852	5063	12675	5037
4391		12260	14659.255	52799	8941	7580	2760.008	1853.5	6/30/07		2734		9538	3764	19000	5563	13371	14776	1473.671	643.108	56.274	29478	23273	41078	1051.916	147.926	22184	14167	1309	8680	5669	2583	3710	13001	5135
4729	3854		1162	8750	20477.26	52738	9331	7700	2794.327	2058.8	9/30/07	29937	11537.4	18679	6606	13762	15646	2002.707	661.778	51.353	30132	23772	44116	1399.469	157.7	18961	11565	5838	3820	13113	5019
6390	4675	15214	15809.53	64210	13220		2891	2391.3999	28043	4018	18705	10430	16367	15989	1455.655	604.288	58.345	30349	23840	43292	1342.222	123.118	17659	10379	10712	5580	3523		1269	5416
4127	3384	11068	13418	16959.886	52126		9594	2844.394	2026.4	25175	4267	20304	7980	14454	16077	1339.244	646.22	55.064	30744	23833	41102	1160.342	145.855	17907	12009	1487	9673	3570	10938	5445
3499	11762	8990	16613.717	56271	10068	2914.99	1936.8	30093	20272	7561	15837	16434	1517.293	704.43	73.378	30866	24124	31746	1105.437	166.819	20990	14509	1362	9470	6109	2869	4044	10829	5667
4318	3561	10660	9801	23099.887	55241	10194	2936.781	2174.6001	27926		3691	20156	11520	15061	15162	2210.514	1111.272	52.54	31342	24752	28974	1489.609	184.506	17784		11728	10217	6371	11153	5545
5759	13280	11500	16395	66400	14061	2921.022	2727.3	24592	20454	11880	16629	13428	1478.292	1114.631	58.481	31076	24645	24390	1377.38	139.819	14607	9984	5950	12377
3127	14724	16843	56718	10322	2905.321	2275.8	22784	22004	9084	13648	12342	1447.877	1163.749	59.742	30571	26591	26810	1236.031	167.42	16175	11832	1177	7145	6031	2357	2962	5687
	3943	10551	10095	15806	62637	2903.701	2353.6001	29607	4313	21655	9734	13099	1	2764	1658.16	1251.377	71.704	30614	26861	30272	1171.183	173.209	19071	13844	1184	8024	6447	2616	3126	12204	5920
4179	3589	10190	11022	22378	62480	9827	2892.147	2698.3999	29904	4526	21695	12207	12920	12896	2232.494	1258.239	60.688	30734		27265	34811	1484.118	203.656	16361	11375	1396	9389	6422	12192	6062
5550	4236	13247	12024	17299	74494	13676	2962.982	3301.7	30198	4597	21784	15683	19022	14900	1589.244	1173.697	61.076	30708	27091	31566	1407.336	153.127	14569	10168	1646	10569	5925	2712	7041
3329	10046	16553	18742	64763		11587	3057.395	2951	32037	23193	13499	14503	14874	1506.225	1280.067	65.149	30530	26913	35067	1407.843	185.18	16863	12388		1574	10299	6085	2630	3163	12582
3938	10458	10787	17780	69722	3169.042	31709	23264	15700	16039	15534	1821.99	1381.241	76.314	30808	26773	29893	1233.242	190.681	19410	14361	10765	6437	3168	7334
4189	3654	9678	11339	24125	68520	10909	3207.728	3123.6001	36274	5394	23668	20343	16195	15394	2445.159	1425.887	67.215	31581	26484	32428	1547.115	232.914	1618	11102	3935	13166	7339
4364	13002	11890	19239	82217	1	5194	3206.579	3837	36165	5294	24030	26741	19953	15692	1791.662	1310.33	71.48	31361	26395	3	3114	1482.809	165.445	15126	10480	11457	14166		7715
3295	9540	16083	20875	71680	3224.131	33720	5117	25432	24667	16428	15017	1660.946	1382.738	73.052	31247	26990	35527	1564.223	202.934	16823	12185	12847	3103	3558	13136
3906	3386	10138	20623	76697	11990	3590.161	5087	38274	5088	25234	28571	17367	15658	1978.369	1479.318	75.169	31495	27536	33047	1325.171	217.407	20232	14543	13032	4136	4284	13349	8090
3585	9405	11347	28178	75397	12206	3602.651	5291	33739	5987	25280	28270	17372	15365	2641.996	1535.453	71.956	31478	27913	34576	1624.249	239.993	17326	11852	14233	4372	13071	8003
5425	4283	12484	12099	21628	88418	16947	3631.45	6278	12/31/11	37955	5979	25916	46333	20885	16031	1924.341	1391.307	79.331	32503	28436	32445	1567.145	16014	11629	1691	13887	14571	8494
3152	3487	9270	16630	22967	79676	12863	3581.869	5481	3/31/12	38147	6240	27282	39186	17407	14422	1804.069	1529.392	77.581	31822	28242	33211	1732.064	17808	13153	1585	3991	13434
3022	3575	9467	10547	22324	85430	13347	3571.766	6/30/12	38546	5902	35023	18059	14483	2111.866	1562.849		78.948	31575	28552	32172	1414.444	20570	14249	1413	13501	4616	4588	13507	8926
2927	3864	8857	10753	32218	84467	13570	3523.347	5520	9/30/12	41050	6847	27302	35966	16008	13721	2763.585	1601.558	79.15	31459	29007	36424	1746.709	18130	12073	8592
4725	16711	23715	99078	19710	3589.51	6339	44720	6375	28769	54512	21456	14314	1991.04	1488.385	32578	30045	35810	1751.035	18246	11046	13477	4173	9151
2635	3729	8452	9380	24871	86410	14041	3555.224	5242	3/31/13	43867	6208	30340	43603	20489	14074	1855.198	1585.009	82.104	31356	29420	38095	1827.426	19124	13088	1088	12580	4084	9199
24083	92999	14620	5248	6/30/13	44693	30408	35323	19896	2205.878	1714.969	76.916	32075	29786	1508.514	12811	4643	9451
91865	14835	6147	83.597	9437
107202	19872	6521	61.837	9866
94940	14802	5475	68.816	9970
102342	15472	5489	77.752
98345	15114	5781	77.721	8137
108747	19560	6940	80.553	7852
94242	14833	6307	82.561
100876	15067	80.681		8596
99373	15276	80.927	8701
113622	20181	7433	79.206	9428
99811	15593	6049	85.536	9457
103726	15532	90.74	9632
101952	15605	5786	84.945	9663
116360	20661	85.966	10552
104189	15935	5856	87.022
109366	16240	84.851	10587
110226	16402	6662	95.264	10564
123169	21288	7170	86.712	11008
113018	16867	93.103	10792
114296	16779	6377	11107
113929	16929	7014	10953
127919	22726	8549	11435
114187	16706	7189
116945	17117
7829
7734
8854
8027
8474
9581
7954
9045
8930
10452
8710
9236
9445
9599
8087
9867
9739
8580
10002
9742
10716
9077
10675
10425
10779
9629
11088
10782
11341
10554

Sheet2

Sheet3

Economics 309

Applied Financial and Economic Forecasting

Professor:
Stanley Holmes, Ph.D.

Email:

Stanley.Holmes@tamuc.edu

Office:

BA 132D

Phone:

(903) 468-6029 or (903) 365-7190

Fax:

(903) 886-5601

Semester Project

The objective of the project is to simulate a problem you might face in your first job or business—developing the best 2 year forecast for company sales. Forecasting is an important process in almost all businesses and is an important skill to possess as an employee. The project is due by midnight Central Time on 12/2/2013. You are strongly encouraged to spread the work throughout the semester.

1. Selecting independent (X) variables for your project

Hopefully you have all passed this stage. You need to pick X variable quarterly data sets. Make sure the data are NOT seasonally adjusted. The data relationships should be logical and not spurious. For example, do not use the price of hamburger to forecast auto sales.

2. Writing an abstract

After you pick your topic, it is a good idea to write a brief abstract to help focus your thoughts. The abstract should not be more than a page. It should include

(i) State your forecasting problem- develop the best forecast of each variable.

(ii) Information about and description of your data

(iii) Description of your proposed models

3. Body of the paper

The paper will contain detailed explanations of your thought processes and methodology. At every stage you need to answer the following questions for each variable:

(i) What did you do (ex: Winter’s method with these parameter values…)

(ii) Why did you do it?

(iii) What did you find? (Interpretation of your results)

(iv) What is your conclusion?

Remember this is a business project report for your company – Do Not Show failed model attempts. Show only the best model for each variable for each forecast method.

4. Methodology

The body of your paper will include all four major forecasting techniques:

(i)
Smoothing for each X variable (Chapters 8): You need explain what, why, how etc.

(ii)
Box-Jenkins for each X variable (Chapters 9, 10, 11, 12):

(iii) Decomposition for each X variable (Chapter 7)

(iv) Multiple Regression forecast of the sales variable (Y) (Chapter 3, 4, 5 and 6): You will need other variable(s) to help explain the variation in the sales variable of interest. You need to start looking for those explanatory (X) variables!!

5. Appendix

Your appendix should contain all the relevant supporting printouts such as the tests, plots, graphs etc. that were not used in the discussion in the body of the presentation. It is better to divide the appendix into parts where each part is representing the output from each methodology (ex: Appendix A: Variable Data and citations, Appendix B: X variable outputs, Appendix C: Sales Revenue outputs). Don’t forget to name or number the appendices, you will need to refer to them when you are talking about a specific methodology.

6. Final Report

Your final report should include an executive summary
of your findings which will include the conclusions (Which of the techniques works best and why for each X variable?). You can add the results to your abstract and make the abstract into an executive summary. You need to have an
introduction to talk about your topic in greater length. It will include above
sections 3, 4 and 5 and a conclusion
. Be detailed and complete in all your sections. This is a case of more is better than less as you explain to me what you have done.

� Please remember that there is NOT one right way of preparing a paper. Be precise, explain everything in detail and be structured. The outline is ONLY to remind you about the required parts; its arrangement is completely up to you.

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