decision analysis

Task

The midterm assessment will consist of writing a 2000-word report in which you are required to provide a critical discussion on the various steps required for effective decision-making. You may focus on any decision-making model as discussed in class, but it is critical that you provide an in-depth discussion of the various steps involved in effective decision-making. This individual assignment requires you the deliverables stated below:

EACH PROBLEM SHOULD BE A BUSINESS PROBLEM AND PART 1 IN PART 2 SHOULD BE DIFFERENT PROBLEMS

Part1:

·  You must identify the problem you need to solve or the question you need to answer. Clearly define the problem.

·  Explained the reason/s that cause this problem.

·  Identify different alternatives (at least two).

·  Evaluate the alternatives and weigh the evidence (the forecasting (percentage) of success or failure of the alternative).

·  Present and develop a decision tree for your alternatives (it must have the complete information and calculation, also you have to present the standard decision tree)

·  Clearly present posterior probability, then explain the new information that you received. Then present conditional information, joint probability, and posterior probability). Explain what your decision for this problem is.

Part 2:

·  Identify a problem and explain the reasons, then develop the scenario planning step by step for this situation.

·  By considering all factors and your scenario planning, summarize your final decision.

·  The report must have a table of contents.

·  You should submit your report in pdf format

Formalities:

·  2000 words

·  Cover, Table of Contents, References, and Appendix are excluded from the total word count.

·  Font: Arial 12,5 pts.

·  Text alignment: Justified.

·  The in-text References and the Bibliography have to be in Harvard’s citation style.